Global Trade Growth Defies All Predictions

Global trade is surging far beyond expectations this year, with the volume of goods traded rising by 5% in the first seven months of 2025 compared with the same period in 2024.

“Companies have been pulling from a more diverse range of suppliers, which adds complexity but can help stabilise trade volumes,” the report notes.

Many economists had predicted a slowdown due to higher U.S. tariffs, yet the data show a surprising resilience in global commerce. Among developing countries, trade grew even faster — up 6.2%, demonstrating strong adaptability across global supply chains. Analysts say the surge reflects companies’ quick moves to complete deals before tariff hikes, as well as improved production efficiency, cost-cutting, and innovation in supply strategies. With large sectors like energy, minerals, and electronics exempt from tariffs, the rebound in trade signals that global exchange remains robust even amid protectionist pressures.