Grains See More Supply, Bigger Price Drop Globally

Data collected and analysed by the World Bank indicate that global food commodity prices declined in the first quarter of 2025, most notably in grain, oil, and meal prices, marking a third consecutive year of growth in grain supplies.

Compared to the same period in 2024, the food commodity price index fell by 4% in the first four months of 2025. Grain prices fell by 8%, due to improved production prospects in major exporting countries.

In the 2025-26 season, the global grain supplies are projected to reach a record 3.6 billion tons. The wheat supply returned to its long-term average growth rate, while the maise supply rebounded following recent setbacks. As for soybeans and rice, their supply is projected to grow at about their long-term growth averages. Global edible oil supply should rise by 5% in the 2025-26 crop year for the fourth consecutive year of expansion, outpacing the long-term trend. The food price index is expected to decline by 7% in 2025 year-on-year – with grain prices down 11%, oils and meals down 7%, and other foods down 5% – and stabilise in 2026.