“EV Revolution”: Oil Imports to Decline Sooner Than Later

According to estimates, China could reach its peak in crude oil imports in 2027, partly due to the rising number of electric and hybrid vehicles, three years earlier than the forecast set for global oil demand peaking.

“If China succeeds in this EV revolution, it may decide to refine crude oil into different products for export, explains Victor Gao, chair of the China Energy Security Institute. “That means China’s consumption of crude oil may not necessarily go down; it may hold steady.”

Compared with 2023, China’s oil imports fell by 2% – or 240,000 barrels/day (b/d) – to just over 11 million b/d in 2024. This first decline in 20 years stems from longer-term trends, including a boom in trucks switching from diesel to liquified natural gas and the rising number of electric vehicles, which depress sales of petrol and diesel. Road fuels are expected to fall by 25% to 40% over the next decade. The International Energy Agency believes China’s oil consumption will fall from 16 million to 17 million b/d at present to around 12 million b/d by 2050. The global hope is for the world to reach net zero carbon emissions by 2050.